Significant price swings are calling for proper risk management strategies to avoid financial losses, says Stefan Schmidinger, partner, Kemiex.
Such price fluctuations pose a significant P&L risk to companies, as missing a good timing for a deal can cost tens of thousands of dollars, he stressed.
Several producers of vitamins and amino acids have closed the books for 2020 and have stopped accepting inquiries for short-term orders, including the major vitamin B1 and Dl-Methionine producers, said Kemiex. “Given the current freight situation, Asian producers are only willing to accept orders from February or March 2021 shipment and will levy high surcharges for earlier shipment.”
Freight headaches continue
The supply side is significantly affected by unprecedented logistics related costs and shipping bottlenecks, said the analysts.
Multiple producers and exporters in the Asia-Pacific region (APAC) report shortfalls due to freight costs exceeding their previous calculations. In some cases, arrangements with buyers could be achieved but additional margin pressure is reflected in increasing raw material prices. The freight situation has already led to some shipments not being offered before March, as per Kemiex data.
Freight prices are reaching new record highs every week amid continued container shortage, and port congestion, stressed Schmidinger.
Sea freight data from Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) and Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) suggests that prices are reaching new highs driven by trade lanes to Europe and South America. In many cases, carriers or forwarders are adding various types of surcharges, and global schedule reliability is down to new lows.
In the UK, the analysts outlined how importers are seeking to frontload ahead of the Brexit deadline, which is also causing container surcharges and delays, while major US ports report vessels anchoring, waiting for berth space amid labor and equipment shortages.
“US exporters have also voiced frustration in recent weeks, saying ocean carriers are moving empty containers back to Asia rather than waiting for agricultural exports,” said Schmidinger.
Aircraft utilization is on similar (peak) levels as in the first half of 2020 amid market demand that is continuously outperforming capacity especially out of APAC, he reported. “The ground handling situation remains critical across all key economies due to COVID-19 safety measures. The market situation is expected to remain similar for the first quarter of 2021 and longer with also short-term impacts from COVID-19 vaccine distribution expected.”
Rail freight rates have leaped five-fold on the back of enormous demand and lack of equipment, between US$6,000 and US$10,000 per 40ft high-cube container, said Kemiex. Meanwhile, a container backlog on China’s border with Kazakhstan has prompted a temporary suspension of some westbound services, it added.
And logistics related developments breaking this morning – the port of Dalian in China, which is central to amino acids and ingredient export, has just closed, putting shipments in limbo. “There would seem to be COVID-19 testing measures being implemented in the area,” Schmidinger said, citing a China-based industry source.
The 75/25 joint venture of DSM and Nenter in China has released the first intermediates while vitamin E production is set to only start in January or February 2021, reported the Swiss analysts.
They also highlighted how, due to uncertainties generated by an antidumping petition against imports of methionine from France, Japan and Spain, Adisseo has decided to discontinue exports of Rhodimet NP99 (Dl-Methionine) from France into the US after February 2021. Adisseo said it may reevaluate this…