Republicans are winning the voter registration game in the crucial swing state of Florida with just 18 days until the presidential election on November 3. But registrations might not indicate which way Floridians will vote.
Since the Florida primary in March, 344,465 people have newly registered as Republicans, while the Democrats have added just 197,821, according to Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.
However, as Wasserman points out, figures show that 37 percent of Florida voters are registered as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans heading into November.
Twenty-seven percent of Florida voters are now registered as no party affiliation (NPA) or other – the same percentage as in 2016.
The number of voters registered as NPA/Other has risen 197,818 since March. President Donald Trump‘s margin of victory in Florida was 112,911 votes.
The demographic makeup of the state has also changed since 2016. Latinos now account for a record 17.3 percent of registered voters.
The percentage of white registered voter has declined from 64.2 percent in 2016 to 61.5 percent, while the proportion of African American registered voters has remained the same, at 13.4 percent.
Democratic voter registration in Florida is now at a historic low even though the party leads the GOP by 134,242 voters. The Trump campaign has made strong efforts on the ground as former Vice President Joe Biden‘s campaign eased off due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Democrats have focused on mail-in ballots and succeeded in getting 430,000 more votes than Republicans three weeks before the election, according to Politico. Mail-in ballots could be crucial to winning in a close race.
The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Biden leading in Florida by just 2.7 percent, while the most recent Emerson College poll gives the Democrat a 2 point lead. Poll tracker FiveThirtyyEight rates the Emerson poll A-.
Florida is seen as crucial to Trump’s re-election in November. He’s currently trailing Biden in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states that he won narrowly in 2016 and that handed him the White House.
Republicans’ successful voter registrations in Florida may be welcome news for the Trump campaign and could be crucial in the event of tight election. Nationally, Biden leads the president by more than 9 points but the crucial electoral college votes will be decided in a handful of swing states.